Geographic Distribution Shift of Invasive Plant Austroeupatorium inulifolium in the Future Climate Projection
Annual Research & Review in Biology,
Aims: This study aims to predict the future geographic distribution shift of invasive plant species Austroeupathorium inulifolium as the impact of global climate change.
Study Design: The rising temperature and precipitation change lead to the geographic distribution shift of organisms. A. inulifolium belongs to invasive plant species that often causes a substantial economic loss and ecological degradation in the invaded areas. Modelling of species distribution using the climate-based model could be used to understand the geographic distribution shift of invasive species in the future scenario under global climate change.
Place and Duration of Study: Center for Plant Conservation and Botanic Gardens – LIPI and 6 months.
Methodology: The total 2228 of occurrence records were derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. The seven climatic variables were selected from 19 variables using a pairwise correlation test (vifcor) with a threshold >0.7. The ensemble model was used by combining Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM).
Results: Both two models are well-performed either using AUC or TSS evaluation methods. RF and SVM have AUC >0.95, and TSS >0.8. The predicted current distribution tends to have larger distribution areas compared to observed occurrence records. The predicted future distribution seems to be shifted in several parts of North America and Europe.
Conclusion: The geographic distribution of invasive plant species A. inulifolium will be shifted to the Northern part of globe in 2090. Mean temperature of driest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter are the two most important variables that determine the distribution pattern of the A. inulifolium. The predictive distribution pattern of invasive plant A. inulifolium would be important to provide information about the impact of climate change to the geographic distribution shift of this species.
- Species distribution modeling
- ensemble Model
- invasive plant species
- austroeupathorium inulifolium
- climate change
How to Cite
K. Robert M, The genera of Eupatorieae (Asteraceae). Monographs in Systematic. 1987;22.
NOAA. State of the Climate: National Climate Report for Annual; 2019-2020.
Potter S, Cabbage M, McCarthy L. NASA, NOAA data show 2016 warmest year on record globally,” NASA Climate Change; 2017.
Lynch M, Lande R. Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change,” Biot. Interact. Glob. Chang; 1993.
Parmesan C, Yohe G. “A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems,” Nature; 2003.
Lenoir J, et al. “Going against the flow: Potential mechanisms for unexpected downslope range shifts in a warming climate,” Ecography (Cop.); 2010.
Araújo MB, M. New, Ensemble forecasting of species distributions,” Trends in Ecology and Evolution; 2007.
Kotu V, Deshpande B, Kotu V, Deshpande B. “Chapter 2 – Data Mining Process,” in Predictive Analytics and Data Mining; 2015.
Marmion M, Parviainen M, Luoto M, Heikkinen RK, Thuiller W. “Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling,” Diversity Distribution; 2009.
Grenouillet G, Buisson L, Casajus N, Lek S. Ensemble modelling of species distribution: The effects of geographical and environmental ranges, Ecography (Cop.); 2011.
Yudaputra A, Fijridiyanto IZU, Cropper WP. The potential impact of climate change on the distribution pattern of eusideroxylon zwageri (Bornean ironwood) in Kalimantan, Indonesia,” Biodiversitas; 2020.
Thuiller W. Patterns and uncertainties of species’ range shifts under climate change,” Glob. Chang. Biol; 2004.
Araújo MB, Whittaker RJ, Ladle RJ, Erhard M. Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change,” Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr; 2005.
Hsu T, Peng C, Wang C. Austroeupatorium inulifolium ( Kunth ) King & Robinson ( Asteraceae ), a Newly Naturalized Plant in Taiwan,” Phytologia. 2006;51(1):41–45.
King H, Robinson RM. Studies in the Eupatorieae (Compositae)--- XXVI. A new genus Austroeupatorium,” in Phytologia. 1970;433–434.
HJ, BR. Leanne Brown, Northern Australia Quarantine Strategy: Weeds Target List; 2008.
King RM, Rob H, Austroeupatorium inulifolium; 2021.
GBIF.org, GBIF Occurrence; 2021.
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A. “Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas,” Int. J. Climatol; 2005.
Naimi B, Hamm NAS, Groen TA, Skidmore AK, Toxopeus AG. “Where is positional uncertainty a problem for species distribution modelling?,” Ecography (Cop.); 2014.
Naimi B. Package ‘usdm’. Uncertainty Analysis for Species Distribution Models, R- Cran; 2017.
Yudaputra A, Pujiastuti I, Cropper WP. Comparing six different species distribution models with several subsets of environmental variables: Predicting the potential current distribution of Guettarda speciosa in Indonesia,” Biodiversitas; 2019.
Yudaputra A. Modelling potential current distribution and future dispersal of an invasive species calliandra calothyrsus in Bali Island, Indonesia,” Biodiversitas; 2020.
Chamberlain S. Package 'rgbif’ - Interface to the Global ‘Biodiversity’ Information Facility API,” CRAN Repository; 2019.
Naimi B, Araújo MB. “Sdm: A reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modelling,” Ecography (Cop.); 2016.
Yoo W, Mayberry R, Bae S, Singh K, Peter He Q, Lillard JW. “A Study of Effects of MultiCollinearity in the Multivariable Analysis.,” Int. J. Appl. Sci. Technol; 2014.
Tu YK, Kellett M, Clerehugh V, Gilthorpe MS. “Problems of correlations between explanatory variables in multiple regression analyses in the dental literature,” British Dental Journal; 2005. DOI: 10.1038/sj.bdj.4812743.
Pethiyagoda RS, Nanayakkara S. “Invasion by Austroeupatorium inulifolium (Asteraceae) arrests succession following tea cultivation in the highlands of Sri Lanka,” Ceylon J. Sci. (Biological Sci; 2012.
NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service; 2018.
Abstract View: 90 times
PDF Download: 49 times